The U.S. move into the top 10 for the first time. Re-ranking the 48 World Cup teams after day 19
Well, that changes things. On the second day of the World Cup round of 32, two of the teams in the top 10 of our rankings, Germany and the Netherlands, were knocked out on penalties. Brazil and Morocco remain in contention after victories over strong opposition, leading to a reshuffling of the leading pack and contenders. Japan also headed home after losing to Brazil, but the underdog story of the day was Paraguay defeating Germany for their first World Cup knockout win.
As the number of teams remaining in the competition begins to dwindle, let’s see how it impacts our rankings.
- France
FIFA ranking: 2
Personally, I think France is the clear favorite to win the World Cup. They outclassed Norway’s B-team, becoming one of just three sides to have won all their group games. Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembele took advantage, scoring a hat-trick in the absence of manager Didier Deschamps, who missed the game because of the death of his mother. He is expected to return for the knockouts. With Michael Olise playing in the No 10 role, on three assists and counting, along with Dembele, Kylian Mbappe and Desire Doue, their attack has looked unstoppable. They remain top of our rankings — and The Athletic’s live projection tool forecasts a 21 per cent chance of them winning the World Cup, but first to get past Sweden in the round of 32.
- Argentina
FIFA ranking: 1
Three convincing wins in three Group J matches took the holders comfortably through to the knockout stages. Entering the last 32, Lionel Messi is the tournament’s top scorer with six goals and with similar personnel, this team has looked like the title winners of four years ago. They won’t complain about their place in the bracket, taking on Cape Verde in the round of 32, followed by Australia or Egypt in the round of 16.
- Brazil
FIFA ranking: 5
Brazil made light work of Scotland and Haiti, but there were concerns over their performance in the draw with Morocco, leading some to believe Japan could be a banana skin in the round of 32. Carlo Ancelotti looked the calmest man in Houston, and it was his substitute, Gabriel Martinelli, who scored the added-time winner for Brazil. They matched Japan’s energy and had too much attacking impetus to be denied. Brazil’s midfield, instead of being the team’s weakness, was a net positive as Casemiro found the equalising goal and Bruno Guimaraes set up Martinelli’s winner. Norway or the Ivory Coast await in the next round.
- Spain
FIFA ranking: 3
After starting their tournament with a draw against Cape Verde, Spain collected back-to-back wins once Lamine Yamal returned to the starting XI against Saudi Arabia and Uruguay, topping the group. Their 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia was their most convincing, and against Uruguay they showed how they might frustrate sides in the knockouts, being so comfortable in possession after taking a lead. They play Austria next.
- England
FIFA ranking: 4
England got back to winning ways by beating Panama 2-0 to top Group L unbeaten. Their squad selection was moulded around key players Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham, who both scored in the final group game and enter the knockouts in good form. Reece James’ hamstring injury is the bad news, a hole in the starting line-up Thomas Tuchel will have to plug ahead of Wednesday’s round-of-32 match against DR Congo.
- Morocco
FIFA ranking: 6
Morocco’s round-of-32 victory against the Netherlands shows their run to the Qatar 2022 semi-finals was no fluke. Manager Mohamed Ouahbi has nurtured the next generation, winning the 2025 Under-20 World Cup, and they can now consistently compete with the heavy hitters. Take the group stage, where they looked like the better team in a draw against Brazil. Issa Diop’s added-time equaliser showcased another strength of the team: the recruitment of dual nationals. Diop switched his allegiance from France earlier this year. They will be confident they can reach the quarter-finals, playing hosts Canada in the last 16.
- Mexico
FIFA ranking: 9
One of only three teams to collect three wins from three in the group stage (the others being reigning champions Argentina and the beaten finalists France). Mexico scored six goals and kept three clean sheets, beating the Czech Republic 3-0 with a rotated side on Wednesday. Several Mexico players caught the eye, including 17-year-old midfielder Gilberto Mora and forward Julian Quinones, who has scored two goals. Winning Group A means they will stay in Mexico City for the round of 32 (and, if they make it through, the round of 16), facing a well-organised Ecuador team.
- Colombia
FIFA ranking: 11
A team of attacking talent and with willing runners aplenty, wins over Uzbekistan and DR Congo, though not entirely convincing, were enough to confirm progression for Colombia with a match to spare. A draw in their final game meant they topped Group K over Portugal, a sign of their quality. What looked to be Davison Sanchez’s big toe creeping into an offside position denied them a late win, too. Winning the group means Ghana are their opponents in the round of 32 rather than Croatia.
- Norway
FIFA ranking: 23
Norway qualified with a game to spare after having no trouble scoring against Senegal and Iraq. Their fearsome Manchester City striker Erling Haaland scored four goals in his first two World Cup games before being rested against France. They were perhaps caught off guard that France fielded the majority of their stars in that meeting. Norway’s reserves didn’t stand much of a chance, losing 4-1. It highlights a concern for the team’s lack of strength in depth, though their starters were able to rest. In an intriguing round-of-32 match, Norway will next face the Ivory Coast.
- United States
FIFA ranking: 15
The loss of two top-10 ranked teams, Germany and the Netherlands, means the U.S. move into the top 10 of our rankings for the first time. The U.S. have been responsible for bringing great excitement to the tournament as one of the three co-hosts. Their positive and adventurous football has not been short of goals. But after rotating against Turkey, they lost some momentum, suffering a late 3-2 loss. Still, with an elite coach, Mauricio Pochettino, in the dugout, their fans are full of confidence entering the knockouts, asking, ‘Why not U.S.’?
- Portugal
FIFA ranking: 8
Curiously, the biggest question mark around this Portugal involves their greatest player. Cristiano Ronaldo scored a brace against Uzbekistan, yes, but was ineffective against DR Congo and Colombia, and is the only Portugal player to appear in every minute of the group stage. Not beating Colombia in the final game — a drawn match they looked more likely to lose than win — means a harder route to the final. In the round of 32 will be Croatia, and if they win that, it sets up a round-of-16 tie with Spain.
- Croatia
FIFA ranking: 13
After worryingly shipping four goals against England in their opener, Croatia won their next two group games against Panama and Ghana to progress second in the group. The 2018 finalists have had five different goalscorers, with some excellent finishes from outside the box, which shows they have both quality across the team, but are not reliant on one talisman. Since losing to England, they’ve changed to a 4-2-3-1, which seems to be working better. Whether or not they can still compete with the very best sides will be proven as they face Portugal in the next round.
- Switzerland
FIFA ranking: 16
After starting with a draw against Qatar, Switzerland progressed to the knockout stages as Group B winners following victories over Canada and Bosnia and Herzegovina. An encouraging sign has been the performances of 20-year-old Freiburg midfielder Johan Manzambi, who has breathed new life into the team with three goals. After going undefeated, they have a kind landing in the next phase, with Algeria in the round of 32.
- Canada
FIFA ranking: 32
The co-hosts are slowly rising up these rankings, helped by the fact that they were the first team to qualify for the last 16. Coach Jesse Marsch described their next game — which they now know will be against Morocco — as “a free hit” after Stephen Eustaquio’s 92nd-minute winner ensured Canada defeated South Africa in Los Angeles. That doesn’t feel like the most optimistic interpretation of their chances, but they will certainly start that game in Houston as the underdogs.
- Belgium
FIFA ranking: 10
After unconvincing performances against Egypt and Iran, Belgium still had enough quality to overwhelm New Zealand as their big-name forwards Leandro Trossard, Kevin de Bruyne, and Romelu Lukaku all got on the scoresheet in a 5-1 win. Their performances in the group stage suggest they are not as good as their FIFA ranking implies, but in the end, they topped the group, setting up a round-of-32 match against Senegal.
- Egypt
FIFA ranking: 26
Egypt’s 1-1 draw with Iran in their final group match, after a win against New Zealand and draw with Belgium, meant they dropped to second in the table, behind Belgium. It was not disastrous for their round-of-32 outlook — they will face Australia next. But it does mean they could meet Argentina in the last 16.
- Ghana
FIFA ranking: 65
Ghana played the group stage smartly. Coach Carlos Queiroz adjusted his tactics against each team, winning the game they needed to against Panama and earning a draw against England with an impressive defensive display. After a narrow defeat by Croatia, they slipped to third in Group L but were always going to progress, whatever the result in Philadelphia. They have shown they can be a versatile team and can stick to a game plan, which they will need to do against Colombia in the round of 32.
- Ivory Coast
FIFA ranking: 30
With a 2-0 win over Curacao, Ivory Coast reached the World Cup knockout stages for the first time. The level of their performances in the group phase shows promise to go further, with wingers Yan Diomande and Amad capable of troubling any defence. Their round-of-32 match-up will test that. They face the runners-up of Group I, Norway.
- Sweden
FIFA ranking: 36
After thrashing Tunisia and being thrashed by the Netherlands, Thursday’s 1-1 draw against Japan evens them out as a solid-looking team. Sweden have wrapped up their spot in the knockouts as one of the eight best third-placed teams — despite Anthony Elanga’s apparent confusion. Elanga’s curling strike in that Japan draw showed they have individuals capable of game-changing moments, along with Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres. But they will need a big performance to get past Group I winners France on Tuesday.
- Ecuador
FIFA ranking: 24
Ecuador’s victory over Germany took them through to the World Cup knockouts for the first time in 20 years. Had they not suffered a late defeat by the Ivory Coast, or been denied by Curacao goalkeeper Eloy Room’s masterclass, they might have finished higher than third in Group E. They have continued the defensive strength they showed in qualifying, which bodes well for the round of 32, where they will face co-hosts Mexico in Mexico City.
- Senegal
FIFA ranking: 18
The (stripped) African champions had a tough time in Group I, but progressed as one of the best third-placed teams after thrashing Iraq 5-0. Senegal were competitive in games against France and Norway, but were prone to defensive errors and were played through too easily. They look more formidable going forward, but will hope goalkeeper Edouard Mendy recovers from a knee injury suffered against Norway. For the round of 32, they will meet Belgium in what could be an entertaining game.
- Paraguay
FIFA ranking: 37
Winning your first World Cup knockout game is one thing; doing it against four-time winners Germany is quite another. They had a mixed group stage, including being dismantled 4-1 by the U.S. But any embarrassment from that game is behind them now. Paraguay did against Germany what all good underdogs do: defend well and score from a set piece. Well, the ball was recycled from a corner, and it was a great cross by Matias Galarza and header by Julio Enciso, so we’re counting it as a set piece anyway. Goalkeeper Orlando Gill was a hero. He kept two clean sheets in the group, but his two penalty saves helped take Paraguay to the last 16, where they will meet France or Sweden.
- Algeria
FIFA ranking: 29
A dramatic end to their game against Austria included their late ‘winner’ being cancelled out by an equaliser, but a 3-3 draw was enough for progression in third place on four points after a win against Jordan. This means their round-of-32 opponent will be Switzerland as opposed to Spain, not the worst news. Riyad Mahrez, 35, has rolled back the years, providing an assist and two goals since coming back into the starting line-up in the second match.
- Austria
FIFA ranking: 22
It is a borderline miracle Austria are still in the tournament, having been within seconds of heading home. Thankfully for Ralf Rangnick’s side, Sasa Kalajdzic’s equaliser in the final seconds of their final game of the group stage against Algeria was enough to earn them a reprieve. They enter the knockouts on that high, and have twice scored three goals in Group J — beating Jordan 3-1 and drawing 3-3 with Algeria. But it’s hard to see them getting past Spain in the round of 32, even with the experienced players who helped them progress from the groups.
- Australia
FIFA ranking: 28
Progression as Group D runners-up marks a solid effort from Australia, and two clean sheets from three games helped them do it. Despite disappointing against the United States, their highlight was the performance against Turkey, producing a 2-0 win with only 28 per cent possession in a breakout game for 20-year-old Watford forward Nestory Irankunda. They will have to channel this solidarity and cutting edge in the knockout stages, coming up against Egypt.
- DR Congo
FIFA ranking: 41
In their first World Cup since 1974, they have qualified for the knockout stages for the first time. A well-earned draw against Portugal in their first match put them in a good position to progress, showing defensive solidity with five at the back and Yoane Wissa providing clinical touches up front, in contrast to his Premier League form with Newcastle United in 2025-26. A comeback from 1-0 down to 3-1 up against Uzbekistan sealed their place in the round of 32, where they will come up against England.
- Cape Verde
FIFA ranking: 64
Cape Verde reaching the knockouts on their World Cup debut is the biggest fairytale of the tournament to date. After keeping out European champions Spain, earning goalkeeper Vozinha Instagram fame, and drawing 2-2 with Uruguay, they confirmed progression with a third point, against Saudi Arabia, to finish in second. The reward is a round-of-32 tie against holders Argentina. They couldn’t do it again, could they? Whatever happens in the knockout stages, these players have inspired a generation by making history.
- Bosnia and Herzegovina
FIFA ranking: 61
Unlike the Czech Republic, Bosnia and Herzegovina didn’t waste their chance after progressing through the European qualification play-offs, knocking out Italy in the final. A 3-1 win against Qatar booked their place in the World Cup’s round of 32, adding to the point earned against Canada in their opening draw. Having finished third in Group B, they are set to face another host, the United States, in San Francisco next.
The eliminated teams
- Netherlands
FIFA ranking: 7
The Netherlands’ group stage instilled confidence in the team, including a 5-1 win over Sweden. Cody Gakpo, Brian Brobbey and Crysencio Summerville had all combined well in a dangerous-looking attack. But after topping their group, they were unlucky to draw another top-10 ranked team in Morocco. Ronald Koeman changed the setup to play five defenders, and it worked well enough that Morocco needed a late equaliser. But could they have stuck to the same approach that brought group-stage success? After missing three out of five penalties, they were defeated in the shootout. There will be disappointment exiting at this stage of the tournament, but at least it was against a strong opponent.
- Germany
FIFA ranking: 12
Germany’s group-stage performances were very promising after two games, a thrashing of Curacao and a late win over the Ivory Coast, but there was cause for concern in their final group game against Ecuador, in which they lost 2-1 despite starting with something close to their strongest XI. They might feel hard done by at losing to Paraguay in the last 32, as Jonathan Tah’s extra-time goal was ruled
